MATH 321 (Fall 2006)
"Mathematical Probability"
Course Outline
Instructor:
Anatoliy Swishchuk
E-mail: aswish@math.ucalgary.ca
Office: MS552
Tel.: (403) 220-3274
Office Hours: TR: 13:00-14:00

Teaching Assistant (T05):

Shauna Skinner
E-mail:
shaunaskinner@gmail.com

Teaching Assistant (T06/T07):
Yuan, Zhushun
E-mail: yuan@math.ucalgary.ca
Tel: 220-4501
Office: MS330

Place: ST 135

Lectures Schedule and Tutorials 
Lectures schedule (L02)
Tutorials  schedule (T05/T06/T07)
Tuesday/Thursday  15:30-16:45  (ST 135)
 Wednesday 13:00-13:50 (BIO182)
 Wednesday 13:00-13:50 (MS521)
 Wednesday 15:00-15:50 (MS571)

Syllabus:
Sample spaces, Discrete probability, Discrete and continuous random variables, Standard distributions,
Mathematical expectations and variance, Moments and moment generating functions, Central limit theorem,
Functions of random variables, Introduction to statistical inference

 Important Class Dates:
First day of class: 15:30, Tuesday, September 12, 2006;
Quiz # 1: October 11, Wed, 13:00 (BIO182/MS521);15:00(MS571)
Quiz # 2: October 25, Wed, 13:00 (BIO182/MS521;15:00(MS571)
Midterm: November 9, Thu, 15:30-16:45 (ST135)
Quiz # 3: November 8, Wed, 13:00 (BIO182/MS521);15:00(MS571)
Quiz # 4:  November 22, Wed, 13:00 (BIO182/MS521);15:00(MS571)
Quiz # 5:   December 6, Wed, 13:00 (BIO182/MS521);15:00(MS571)
Last day of class: December 7, 2006.
  Fall Session Final Examinations: December 11-20, 2006;
Final Exam:
13 December, Wednesday, 3:30pm-5:30pm, ICT 121.

Recommended text:
'Mathematical Statistics with Applications' by D.D. Wackerly, W.M. Mendenhall and R.L. Scheaffer, 6th ed., Duxbury Press.

Course Web Page:
The current official syllabus for this course is available in the wall pockets across from MS 476 and
on the webpage at www.math.ucalgary.ca Course Listing-Undergraduate.
There is also a web page for this course which contains the course outline, tentative course schedule,  grading scheme, important class dates, etc.
Announcements made in class will be posted there (see end of this web-page). The address of this web page is: http://www.math.ucalgary.ca/~aswish/math321F06.html/

Class work:
In-class lectures with typical examples (lecture notes will be posted on the webpage in the form of pdf-files
);
your computer must have an Adobe Acrobat reader (for free downloading see www.adobe.com).

Midterm and Quizzes:
There will be 1 Midterm ( Nov 9, 2006) and 5 Quizzes.

Final Exam:
It will cover all the materials covered in this course.

Grading scheme (Course Evaluation):
 Exam, Midterm and Quizzes
Value (% of your final mark)
Dates
Midterm
25%
November 9, Thu, 15:30-16:45 (ST135)
Quizzes (5)
25%=5x5% (5% for each quiz)
Oct 11, Oct 25, Nov 8, Nov 22, Dec 6
Final Exam 50% 13 December, Wednesday, 3:30pm-5:30pm, ICT 121.


Tentative Lectures Schedule for MATH 321
Month
Day
Tuesday
Day
Thursday
Sep
12
Lec1: Introduction to Probability: Probability and Inference. A Review of Set Notation (Sections 2.1-2.3).
14 Lec2: The Discrete Case Probability Model. Probability of Events. Counting Sample Points (Sections 2.4-2.6).
Sep
19
Lec3:Conditional Probability and Independence. Two Laws of Probability. Event Composition Method (Sections 2.7-2.9).
21
Lec4: Law of Total Probability and Bayes' Rule. Numerical Events and Random Variables. Random Sampling (Sampling 2.10-2.12)
Sep
26
Lec5: Definitions of Discrete Random Variables. Distributions, Expected Value and Variance of Discrete Random Variables (Sections 3.1-3.3)
28
Lec 6:  Properties of the Expected Value and Variance  of a Random Variable.  (Section 3.3)
Oct
3
Lec7: Binomial Distribution (Sections  3.4)  5
Lec8: Geometric Distribution, Negative Binomial Distribution. Hypergeometric Distribution. (Sections 3.5.-3.7)
Oct
10
Lec9: Poisson Distribution (Section 3.8)
12
Lec10: Moment-Generating Function, Tchebysheff's Theorem (Sections 3.9,  3.11)
Oct
17
Lec11: Distribution of Continuous Random Variables (CRV)  (Sections 4.1-4.2)
19
Lec12:  Expected Value for CRV.Uniform Distribution (Sections 4.3-4.4)
Oct
24
Lec13:  Normal Distribution (Section 4.5). 26
Lec14: Gamma Distribution (Section 4.6)
Oct-Nov
31
Lec15: The Beta Distribution and Other Expected Values (Section 4.8-4.9)
2
Lec16: Tchebysheff's Theorem (Section 4.10)
Nov
7
Lec17: Definition of Sampling: Normal Distribution (Section 7.1-7.2)
9
 Midterm.
Nov
14
Reading Day (No Lecture)
16
Lec18: The Central Limit Theorem. The Normal Approximation to Binomial Distribution. (Sections 7.3,7.5)
Nov
21
Lec19: Estimation: Confidence Intervals.  (Sections 8.1,8.2,8.5)
23
Lec20:  Large-Sample Confidence Intervals and Selecting the Sample Size (Sections 8.6, 8.7)
Nov
28
Lec21: Hypothesis Testing: Definition. Statistical Tests (Sections 10.1-10.2)
30
Lec22: Large-Sample Test. (Section 10.3)
Dec
5
Lec23: Type II Error Probabilities and Sample Size for the Z Test (Sections 10.4, 10.6)
7
Lec24: Small-Sample Hypothesis Testing (Section 10.8).


Announcements: 
Your Marks for Final Exam are Available

  
Marks for FINAL EXAM, MIDTERM and Quizzes

Answers to MIDTERM and Quizzes (1-5)
his page was updated on December 19 , 2006.