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Elicitation

A short explanation of expert elicitation...
When a decision must be made in the face of uncertainty that cannot be readily characterized on the basis of existing literature, it may be useful to quantitatively explore the subjective judgment of relevant experts. This process is often called expert elicitation. Formal elicitation of expert judgment has been widely used in applied Bayesian decision analysis. Such methods are most commonly used in business and engineering when decisions must be taken quickly on the basis of incomplete information.

While such methods cannot substitute for definitive scientific research, they are relevant when there are no unambiguous objective methods for combining results in the literature to produce probabilistic estimates and, when current decisions depend, implicitly or explicitly, on such estimates.

Selected Literature
M. Granger Morgan, Mitchell Small, Max Henrion, Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge University Press, 1990.

Detlof von Winterfeldt and Ward Edwards, Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research, Cambridge University Press, 1986.

A google scholar search for "expert elicitation"

Publications

100. Aimee E. Curtright, M. Granger Morgan and David W. Keith. (2008) Expert Assessments of Future Photovoltaic Technologies. Environmental Science & Technology. (PDF)

79. Kirsten Zickfeld, Anders Leverman, David W. Keith, Till Kuhlbrodt, M.Granger Morgan and Stefan Rahmstorf. (2007). Expert judgements on the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to climate change. Climatic Change, 82: 235-265. (PDF)

77. M. Granger Morgan, Peter J. Adams and David W. Keith (2006). Elicitation of expert judgments of aerosol forcing. Climatic Change, 75: 195-214.(PDF)

14. D. W. Keith (1996). When is it appropriate to combine expert judgments? Climatic Change, 33: 139-143. (PDF)

13. M. G. Morgan and D. W. Keith (1995). Subjective Judgments By Climate Experts. Environmental Science & Technology, 29: A468-A476. (PDF)